ABSTRACT
There has been a marked rise in the number of avoidable deaths in health services around the world. At the same time there has been a growing increase in antibiotic resistant so-called "superbugs." We examine here the potential role of body temperature measurement in these adverse trends. Electronic based thermometers have replaced traditional mercury (and other liquid-in-glass type) thermometers for reasons of safety rather than superiority. Electronic thermometers are in general less robust from a measurement perspective than their predecessors. We illustrate the implications of unreliable temperature measurement on the diagnosis and management of disease, including COVID-19, through statistical calculations. Since a return to mercury thermometers is both undesirable and impractical, we call for better governance in the current practice of clinical thermometry to ensure the traceability and long-term accuracy of electronic thermometers and discuss how this could be achieved.
Subject(s)
Body Temperature/physiology , Thermometry/methods , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/physiopathology , Humans , Practice Guidelines as Topic , SARS-CoV-2 , Thermometers/adverse effects , Thermometers/standards , Thermometry/adverse effects , Thermometry/instrumentation , Thermometry/standards , UncertaintyABSTRACT
Infrared thermal screening, via the use of handheld non-contact infrared thermometers (NCITs) and thermal scanners, has been widely implemented all over the world. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate its diagnostic accuracy for the detection of fever. We searched PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, medRxiv, bioRxiv, ClinicalTrials.gov, COVID-19 Open Research Dataset, COVID-19 research database, Epistemonikos, EPPI-Centre, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, Scopus and Web of Science databases for studies where a non-contact infrared device was used to detect fever against a reference standard of conventional thermometers. Forest plots and Hierarchical Summary Receiver Operating Characteristics curves were used to describe the pooled summary estimates of sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratio. From a total of 1063 results, 30 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis, of which 19 were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.808 (95%CI 0.656-0.903) and 0.920 (95%CI 0.769-0.975), respectively, for the NCITs (using forehead as the site of measurement), and 0.818 (95%CI 0.758-0.866) and 0.923 (95%CI 0.823-0.969), respectively, for thermal scanners. The sensitivity of NCITs increased on use of rectal temperature as the reference. The sensitivity of thermal scanners decreased in a disease outbreak/pandemic setting. Changes approaching statistical significance were also observed on the exclusion of neonates from the analysis. Thermal screening had a low positive predictive value, especially at the initial stage of an outbreak, whereas the negative predictive value (NPV) continued to be high even at later stages. Thermal screening has reasonable diagnostic accuracy in the detection of fever, although it may vary with changes in subject characteristics, setting, index test and the reference standard used. Thermal screening has a good NPV even during a pandemic. The policymakers must take into consideration the factors surrounding the screening strategy while forming ad-hoc guidelines.